Clear Capital: Double Dip Not Likely This Year

6629_map2 Clear Capital: Double Dip Not Likely This Year National quarter-over-quarter price gains dropped 2.2 percentage points from last month to 5.7%, according to the newest Home Data Index (HDI) market report from Clear Capital, which covers data through August. National year-over-year price gains remained positive, but slowed to 6.1%, the data provider says.

‘Overall, prices look poised to continue their deceleration, with a likely drop into negative territory by the end of the year,’ says Dr. Alex Villacorta, Clear Capital's senior statistician. ‘But keep in mind, the price gains we experienced over the past two years are providing a cushion against prices going into double-dip territory, meaning it is unlikely we'll see prices below their 2009 lows this year.’

For a national double-dip to occur, prices would need to drop below their 2009 lows. This would be a decline of 11.7% from current levels, Clear Capital says, adding that, barring a 2008-style meltdown, it is unlikely prices will reach new record lows before spring 2011.

Volatility continues in the Midwest and South, where the greatest price swings occurred, while the West and Northeast remain more stable. The Midwest's quarterly gains of 11.2% were down 3.5 percentage points compared to what was reported last month. Similarly, the South was down 2.6 percentage points to its current 4.4% gain. The West and Northeast slowed by approximately one percentage point each.

Clear Capital says that many of the 15 highest-performing markets continue to post double-digit quarterly gains, represented largely by the volatile Midwest and South regions. However, 11 of these markets experienced softening quarterly price gains, shedding an average 6.1 percentage points off last month's report.

Even markets leading Clear Capital's highest-performing list are slowing down. For example, New Orleans and Cleveland saw some of the largest slowdowns in yearly price gains, with each falling by more than seven percentage points.

SOURCE: Clear Capital


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