Another Solid Jobs Report Likely Kicks Hopes of Fed Rate Cut Down the Road

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Roughly 139,000 new jobs were added to the U.S. economy in May, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The number of unemployed people stood at 7.2 million, basically flat compared with April.

Sectors that saw the strongest job growth included health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance.

The federal government continued to lose jobs. 

The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024, the BLS says.

In May, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 59.7%, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4%.

The average wage rose by 15 cents, or 0.4%, to $36.24. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 12 cents, or 0.4%, to $31.18.

“The May jobs report beat expectations, adding 139,000 jobs, but downward revisions to the March and April report temper the gain,” says Sam Williamson, senior economist for First American, in a statement. “May marks the second-strongest monthly gain of 2025 — a decent showing as employers navigate through a fog of uncertainty.”

“The solid jobs data will disappoint the housing market looking for signs of looming interest rate cuts, as the data supports the Fed’s view of a still-resilient labor market, likely extending the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ stance on rate cuts as inflation remains the top concern,” Williamson says.

“The job gains in May were narrowly concentrated, with Education and Health contributing 63 percent, Leisure and Hospitality 35 percent, and Financial Activities 10 percent, highlighting subdued hiring across most sectors,” he says. “Manufacturing and Professional and Business Services gave back some of April’s gains, while Retail Trade extended its decline. Government employment was flat overall, as federal losses were offset by local hiring.”

“Other leading indicators, like jobless claims, signal softening labor market conditions, so the June jobs report may be pivotal to prompting any Fed rate cuts in late summer or early fall,” Williamson adds.

Photo: ThisisEngineering

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