Can Commercial Real Estate Data Forecast A Super Bowl Winner?

10843_superbowla Can Commercial Real Estate Data Forecast A Super Bowl Winner? The commercial real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle has used an office vacancy rate analysis to predict the New England Patriots will win Sunday's Super Bowl XLVI.

According to the firm's analysis of the last dozen Super Bowls, teams based in cities with a higher abundance of vacant office space have won the Lombardi Trophy two-thirds of the time. For instance, last year, office vacancy rates stood at 18.9% in Green Bay and 12.1% in Pittsburgh – and the Packers edged the Steelers 31-25.

‘We hit it on the money last year with the Packers, and I'm confident that we've got it right again this time with the Patriots,’ says Roger Staubach, Jones Lang LaSalle's executive chairman and a former quarterback who led the Dallas Cowboys to victory in two Super Bowls. ‘Of course, it has nothing to do with the fact that Bill Belichick went to the Naval Academy and I'm a big fan. I said it last year, and I'll say it again: This vacancy rate hypothesis is the real deal.’

As for this year's Super Bowl, the overall office vacancy rate in New York City stood at 10.4% as of Jan. 1, while Boston reported a rate of 20.5%.

‘If you look at the spread between the two cities, it's about 10 points,’ Staubach adds. ‘I think you're going to see Tom Brady and the Patriots win by about the same margin on Sunday.’


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