Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continued to Rise in March, But Deceleration Looms


U.S. home prices continued to increase in March, rising 2.1% on an adjusted basis compared with February and 20.6% compared with March 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.

“Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in a statement.

“Mortgages are becoming more expensive as the Federal Reserve has begun to ratchet up interest rates, suggesting that the macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer,” Lazzara says. “Although one can safely predict that price gains will begin to decelerate, the timing of the deceleration is a more difficult call.”

The index’s 10-city and 20-city composites – measuring home price growth in the 20 largest U.S. metros – posted adjusted month-over-month increases of 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively.

Year over year, the 10-city composite saw home prices increase 19.5%, while the 20-city composite posted a 21.2% increase.

Tampa, Phoenix and Miami saw the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. 

Tampa led the way with a 34.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix at 32.4% and Miami at 32.0%.

“For both National and 20-city composites, March’s reading was the highest year-over-year price change in more than 35 years of data, with the 10-city growth rate at the 99th percentile of its own history,” Lazzara says. “The strength of the composite indices suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe. All 20 cities saw double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in March, and price growth in 17 cities accelerated relative to February’s report. March’s price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 19 of them.”

Lazzara notes that March marked the first time in nearly three years that Phoenix didn’t see the highest gains.

“As was the case last month, prices were strongest in the South (+29.8%) and Southeast (+29.6%), with every region continuing to show impressive gains,” he adds.

Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments