U.S. home prices decreased -0.3% on an adjusted basis in June compared with May but were up 1.9% compared with June 2024, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.
The report shows there has been a dramatic slowdown in home price appreciation in the past year – to the point where many markets have now turned negative: The index’s 10-city and 20-city composites, which measure home prices in the top 20 largest U.S. markets, saw month-over-month drops of -0.1% and -0.3%, respectively.
The 1.9% annual gain for June is down from a 2.3% annual gain in May.
New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.0% increase in June, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.1% and 4.5%, respectively.
Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.4%.
“June’s results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9 percent year-over-year—the slowest pace since the summer of 2023,” says Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in the report. “What makes this deceleration particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: The modest 1.9 percent annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices that were more than offset by a 2.5 percent surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025.”
“The geographic divergence has become the story’s defining characteristic,” Godec says. “New York’s 7.0 percent annual gain stands as a stark outlier, leading all markets by a wide margin, followed by Chicago at 6.1 percent and Cleveland at 4.5 percent. This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix, Tampa and Dallas.”
Godec says for the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation.
“From June 2024 to June 2025, the Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7 percent, substantially outpacing the 1.9 percent gain in national home prices,” he says. “This reversal is historically significant: During the pandemic surge, home values were climbing at double-digit annual rates that far exceeded inflation, building substantial real wealth for homeowners. Now, American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”
Photo: Frames For Your Heart