U.S. home prices increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in August compared with July and were up 1.5% compared with August 2024, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.
Both the 10-city and 20-city composites saw a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, seasonally adjusted.
Without seasonal adjustment, U.S. home prices fell -0.3% month over month in August.
Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says August marked “the weakest annual gain [in U.S. home prices] in over two years,” falling well below the 3% inflation rate.
“For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher,” Godec says in a statement. “The National Index rose 1.5 percent over the past year, with most of that gain coming in the recent six months, while the prior six months were essentially flat.”
“New York again led all metros with a 6.1 percent annual gain, followed by Chicago at 5.9 percent and Cleveland at 4.7 percent,” Godec says. “These Midwest and Northeast markets, which saw modest gains during the pandemic, continue to outperform. At the other end, Tampa fell 3.3 percent year over year, Phoenix dropped 1.7 percent, and Miami declined 1.7 percent.”
“Several Western markets also posted losses: San Francisco fell 1.5 percent, Denver dropped 0.7 percent, and San Diego declined 0.7 percent,” he adds. “Seattle turned slightly negative at 0.1 percent.”
“Home price growth slowed in August to 1.5 percent annually and -0.3 percent monthly,” says Thom Malone, principal economist for Cotality, in a separate statement. “Chicago was the only metro to post a monthly gain. However, other Midwestern cities like Cleveland and Detroit are shifting from rising to falling prices, so it’s likely that Chicago will soon follow suit. Western metros are driving price declines, with Portland and Los Angeles both seeing monthly drops of -1.0 percent. The widespread weakness reflects a standoff between buyers and sellers leading to rising inventory and longer days on market as sellers hold out for the best possible offer.”
Photo: Ian MacDonald