CoreLogic: Home Prices Forecast To Rise 4.6% Over Next Year

Although home price appreciation has slowed considerably in recent months – nationally, prices, including distressed sales, dropped 0.1% in September compared to August – CoreLogic nevertheless forecasts that home prices will increase about 4.6%, year over year, from September 2014 to September 2015.

As of September, home prices, including distressed sales, had climbed 5.6% nationally since September 2013, according to the firm's Home Price Index (HPI) report. It was the 31st consecutive month that home prices had climbed on a year-over-year basis.

Excluding distressed sales, prices were up 0.1%, month over month, and were up 5.2%, year over year.

‘There has been a clear bifurcation in home price growth for lower-end versus upper-end properties in 2014,’ says Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, in a release. ‘As of December 2013, both lower-end and upper-end property prices were up 9.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. As of September, lower-end prices were up 9.4 percent but upper-end prices were up only 4.5 percent.’

‘Home prices continue to rise compared with this time last year, but the rate of growth is clearly slowing as we exit 2014,’ adds Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. ‘With more positive macro-economic trends emerging in the U.S., we are forecasting moderate price growth for 2015.’

Although the rate of appreciation is slowing in most states, all posted year-over-year increases in September, with Michigan and Montana posting double-digit year-over-year growth.

As of September, 28 states and the District of Columbia were at or within 10% of their home price peak, CoreLogic reports.

States posting the biggest gains in home price appreciation, year over year, including distressed sales, were Michigan (10.3%), Montana (10%), Maine (9.6%), Massachusetts (8.8%) and California (8.5%).

Excluding distressed sales, states with the highest home price appreciation were Maine (10.4%), Massachusetts (9.7%), California (7.6%), Texas (7.4%) and Michigan (7.2%).

States with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-36.6%), Florida (-34.1%), Arizona (-29.6%), Rhode Island (-27.9%) and Maryland (-21.2%).


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