Equifax: First Mortgage Balances Approaching Pre-Great Recession Peak

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Outstanding first mortgage balances in February 2018 reached a total of $8.81 trillion, an increase of more than $1 trillion since the trough in 2013 and nearing the industry all-time high of $9.04 trillion recorded in 2008, according to the latest consumer credit trends data from Equifax.

In addition, home equity loan originations were up 11.0% and volume was up by 12.3% during the same time frame.

According to the credit bureau’s data, about 7.27 million first mortgages were originated in 2017, representing a 13.2% decrease compared with 2016. Driving the decrease was a decline in refinances that resulted from rising interest rates that came in the fourth quarter.

In contrast, nearly 1.45 million HELOCs and 771,300 home equity installment loans were originated for the same timeframe, representing 1.1% and 12.3% increases from the previous year, respectively.

Home equity loan balances and accounts outstanding have been steadily declining since their respective peaks at the end of 2007. Balances are down 65.2% from peak, while accounts are down 60.8% as of January 2018, according to Equifax’s data.

Outstanding HELOC balances as of February were at $418 billion, a 6.2% decrease compared with a year earlier and a 38.2% decrease from the peak of $677 billion seen in May 2009.

“Despite nearing the pre-Great Recession peak in nominal terms, the market for first mortgages is in a much healthier place than in 2008, with low interest rates and normalized home prices supporting affordability,” says Gunnar Blix, deputy chief economist for Equifax, in a statement.

Equifax’s consumer finance trends report also tracks auto loan and credit card activity.

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