The Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased 1.2 points to 74.5 in September, as survey respondents continued to report divergent opinions of home-buying and home-selling conditions. Overall, three of the index’s six components decreased month over month.
Most notably, an even greater share of consumers reported that it’s a bad time to buy a home – with that number now sitting at 66%, up from 63% last month and significantly higher than the 28% of respondents who believe it’s a good time to buy. The home-selling conditions component remained mostly flat, with a strong majority of consumers maintaining that it’s a good time to sell. Year over year, the full index is down 6.5 points.
“The HPSI declined slightly this month but remains within the general bounds we’ve seen since the end of last year,” observes Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist. “The survey’s story is also largely unchanged. Consumers feel it’s a bad time to buy a home but a good time to sell – and they continue to cite high home prices as the primary reason.”
“Across all consumer segments, renters and younger consumers were slightly more likely to indicate it’s a bad time to buy, perhaps a reflection of their generally lower incomes and their observation that the availability of affordable homes is lacking,” continues Duncan. “We’re also seeing a softening in consumers’ expectations that home prices will continue to increase; however, in our view, other housing market fundamentals remain supportive of further home price appreciation – including low levels of inventory and low interest rates.”
The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 32% to 28%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 63% to 66%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased 7 percentage points month over month.
The percentage who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 73% to 74%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell remained unchanged at 19%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 1 percentage point month over month.
Those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 40% to 37%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down remained unchanged at 24%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 31% to 33%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up decreased 3 percentage points month over month.
The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 6% to 8%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 53% to 51%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same decreased from 35% to 33%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 4 percentage points month over month.
The respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 82% to 81%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 15% to 16%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 2 percentage points month over month.
Those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from 26% to 27%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 12% to 13%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 59% to 57%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained unchanged month over month.
Read the full report here.
