Healthy Jobs Report in June Increases Prospect of Fed Rate Hike

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The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs in June as the unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The strongest job gains were seen in government, healthcare, social assistance and construction.

The number of unemployed persons stood at about 6 million. Of those, about 1.1 million were long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks or more).

The labor force participation rate stood at 62.6%, where it has been pinned for four consecutive months.

Employment in the government sector increased by 60,000 jobs in June. Healthcare added 41,000 jobs, while social assistance added 24,000 jobs.

Employment in construction continued to trend up in June – adding 23,000 jobs.

Job growth slowed in leisure and hospitality, which saw 21,000 positions added in June.

Wages increased, with average hourly wage for private nonfarm payrolls rising by 12 cents, or 0.4%, to $33.58.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.4%, according to the BLS.

Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.4%, to $28.83.

“This is a solid report, even with the downward revisions,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, in a statement. “Not a lot here to keep the Fed from raising rates in July. Job growth has cooled a bit, but wage growth came in a little hotter. The labor market is moderating gracefully, but still too hot for the Fed’s liking.

“Moving to construction, the industry sector that has surprised everyone to the upside,” Kushi says. “The construction industry is very interest-rate sensitive, so many expected job growth to crater. Yet, new-home construction has been supported by the lack of existing-home inventory.

“In the June jobs report, residential building construction employment is up 0.8 percent year over year, while non-residential is up by 4.8 percent,” she adds. “Residential building employment is up 11 percent compared with pre-pandemic, while non-residential building is up 1.8 percent. Both were up on a month-over-month basis.”

As Kushi notes, much of the growth in construction came from the addition of 10,000 positions for residential specialty trade contractors.

“This subsector comprises establishments whose primary activity is performing specific activities, such as pouring concrete, site preparation, plumbing, painting and electrical work,” Kushi says. “With existing homeowners rate-locked into their home and with not enough homes on the market, consumers may decide to renovate their own home instead of trading up with a new-home purchase. And you need more hammers at work to renovate homes.

“Certainly, we have seen the number of residential building construction jobs come down from the recent peak in January of this year, but not by much,” Kushi notes. “Residential construction is defying expectations and it’s because the housing market continues to face a housing shortage.”

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