Housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.29 million, an increase of 13.7% compared with a revised 1.135 million in September but a decrease of 2.9% compared with 1.328 million in October 2016, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
It was the highest reading since October 2016, when total starts hit a post-recession high of 1.33 million.
Starts of single-family homes in October were at a rate of 877,000, an increase of 5.3% compared with a revised 833,000 in September and an increase of 0.7% compared with October 2016.
Starts of multifamily homes (five units or more per building) were at a rate of 393,000, an increase of 37.4% compared with 286,000 in September but a decrease of 12.1% compared with October last year.
Building permits were at a rate of 1.297 million, an increase of 5.9% compared with a revised 1.225 million in September and an increase of 0.9% compared with 1.285 million in October 2016.
Permits for single-family homes were at a rate of 839,000, an increase of 1.9% compared with a revised 823,000 in September. Permits for multifamily homes were at a rate of 416,000, an increase of 13.4% compared with 367,000 in September but a decrease of 12.2% compared with October 2016.
“This uptick in housing production is aligned with our reports of strong builder confidence,” says Granger MacDonald, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), in a statement. “Our members are optimistic about the future of the housing market, even as uncertainties remain and they continue to face supply-side issues.”
“We are seeing solid, steady production growth that is consistent with NAHB’s forecast for continued strengthening of the single-family sector,” adds Robert Dietz, chief economist for NAHB. “As the job market and overall economy continue to firm, we should see demand for housing increase as we head into 2018.”
Regionally, combined single-family and multifamily housing production increased 42.2% in the Northeast, 18.4% in the Midwest and 17.2% in the South.
Starts fell 3.7% in the West.
Permits rose in all four regions, increasing 13% in the West, 4.1% in the Northeast, 3.8% in the Midwest and 3% in the South.
In a statement, Bill Banfield, executive vice president of capital markets for Quicken Loans, says the increase in permit issuance indicates “that we should see more new construction in the coming months.”
“Despite monthly fluctuations, generally low mortgage rates also signal homebuilding activity across the country can be expected to grow steadily,” Banfield adds.
Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American Financial Corp., points out that some of the increase in October may be due to construction activity returning to the greater Houston and south Florida areas, following the impact from hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
He says some of the 3% monthly increase in permit issuance in the South “indicates some rebound from the hurricanes’ impact.”
Housing completions were also up 15% year over year in October, which Fleming says “is good news because the additional housing units are needed to help alleviate the inventory shortage in the current housing market.”
“As we have previously discussed in our Real House Price Index, the lack of inventory for sale has caused rapid price appreciation, and when combined with rising mortgage rates, affordability suffers,” Fleming adds.