Housing Supply Shortage Likely to Continue Through Spring

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HouseCanary Inc.’s latest Market Pulse report suggests that 2022 will see supply constraints continue to challenge the U.S. housing market.

“As we kick off 2022 with a significant COVID-19 resurgence, we can expect the nationwide shortage of homes for sale to persist well into the spring, driving home prices even higher,” comments Jeremy Sicklick, co-founder and CEO of HouseCanary.

“Given that the U.S. remains in a low inventory environment with inflation rates at their steepest in 40 years, it’s very likely this year will bring another double-digit increase in national home prices, with our models forecasting price growth in the 10-12% range,” he adds.

Since December 2020, there have been 3,218,779 net new listings placed on the market, which is a 4.6% increase versus the same period in 2020. The percentage of total net new listings over the last 52 weeks, broken down by home price, were 17.2% for $0-$200,000, 40.7% for $200,000-$400,000, 21.6% for $400,000-$600,000, 13.8% for $600,000-$1,000,000 and 6.7%for >$1,000,000.

The percent change in net new listing activity over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2020, broken down by home price, were -19.9% for $0-$200,000, -4.5% for $200,000-$400,000, +27.4% for $400,000-$600,000, +41.2% for $600,000-$1,000,000 and +39.0% for >$1,000,000.

Monthly new listing volume for single-family detached homes was down 10.6% compared to December 2020. In December, there were 139,832 net new listings placed on the market, representing a 16.6% decrease year-over-year. For the month of December, the percent change in net new listing volume compared to December 2020, broken down by home price, were -28.6% for $0-$200,000, -20.5% for $200,000-$400,000, +0.8% for $400,000-$600,000, -2.8% for $600,000-$1,000,000 and -10.4% for >$1,000,000.

Over the last 52 weeks, 3,448,546 properties have gone into contract, representing a 0.6% increase relative to the same period in 2020. The percentage of total contract volume since December 2020, broken down by home price, were 17.7% for $0-$200,000, 40.8% for $200,000-$400,000, 21.2% for $400,000-$600,000, 13.6% for $600,000-$1,000,000 and 6.7% for >$1,000,000.

The percent change in contract volume over the last 52 weeks versus the same period in 2020, broken down by home price, were -23.4% for $0-$200,000, -8.1% for $200,000-$400,000, +21.6% for $400,000-$600,000, +38.2% for $600,000-$1,000,000 and +43.2% for >$1,000,000.

For the month of December, there were 238,594 listings that went under contract nationwide for single-family detached homes, which is a 1.1% increase year-over-year. For the month of December, the percent change in contract volume compared to December 2020, broken down by home price, were -10.7% for $0-$200,000, -4.3% for $200,000-$400,000, +18.7% for $400,000-$600,000, +16.5% for $600,000-$1,000,000 and +0.8% for >$1,000,000.

For the week ending December 31, 2021, the median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. was $373,619, a 7.3% increase year-over-year. For the week ending December 3, 2021, the median closed price of single-family listings in the U.S. was $383,395, a15.1% increase year-over-year. The median price of all single-family listings in the U.S. is down 2.2% month-over-month and the median price of closed listings has increased by 0.3% month-over-month.

Photo by Ralph Kelly on Unsplash

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