The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association‘s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 18.
On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 14% from the previous week and was 54% lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1% compared with the previous week and was 12% lower than the same week one year ago.
“Rates on 30-year conforming mortgages jumped by 23 basis points last week, the largest weekly increase since March 2020,” says Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist. “The jump in rates comes as markets moved to price in a much faster pace of rate hikes, as well as expectations of fewer MBS purchases from the Federal Reserve. With mortgage rates now at 4.5 percent, compared to rates at or below 3 percent not that long ago, it is no surprise that refinance volume has dropped by more than 50 percent compared to this time last year.”
“MBA’s new March forecast expects mortgage rates to continue to trend higher through the course of 2022,” continues Fratantoni. “Purchase application volume was down slightly for the week, with a larger drop in FHA and VA purchase volume, and a small decline in conventional purchase loans. First-time homebuyers, who rely on these government programs, are increasingly challenged by both the rapid increase in home prices and higher mortgage rates. Repeat homebuyers, who are more likely to use conventional loans, benefit from the gains in home equity realized on a sale which can be used to fuel their next purchase, even with rates moving higher.”
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 44.8% of total applications from 48.4% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.4% of total applications.
The FHA share of total applications increased to 8.8% from 8.7% the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 9.8% from 10.5% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.4% from 0.5% the week prior. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 4.50% from 4.27%, with points increasing to 0.59 from 0.54 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) increased to 4.11% from 4.02%, with points increasing to 0.51 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 4.40% from 4.23%, with points increasing to 0.73 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.76% from 3.55%, with points increasing to 0.55 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 3.39% from 3.36%, with points increasing to 0.54 from 0.23 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
