Report Predicts Near-Term Moderation For Canadian Housing

Both new- and existing-home market activity are expected to moderate through the end of 2012, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) second quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition.

CMHC predicts that on an annual basis, housing starts will be in the range of 182,300 to 220,600 units this year, with a point forecast of 202,700 units. In 2013, CMHC is expecting that housing starts will be in the range of 175,100 to 213,500 units, with a point forecast of 195,700 units.

Existing home sales will be in the range of 431,200 to 516,100 units this year, CMHC adds, with a point forecast of 472,300 units. In 2013, CMHC says that multiple listing service (MLS) sales will move up in the range of 431,300 to 522,400 units, with a point forecast of 474,900 units. The average MLS price is forecast to be between $341,100 and $406,700 in 2012 and between $346,000 and $419,900 in 2013.

‘Housing has gained some momentum recently,’ says Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist for CMHC. ‘Housing starts in the early part of the year were robust due to the multiples segment, which varies significantly from month to month. Although economic conditions are expected to remain supportive of housing demand, housing starts activity is expected to moderate as 2012 progresses. Similarly, balanced market conditions in the existing home market will result in modest house price gains through to the end of the year.’



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