Home-price growth, which has been in the double digits since summer 2020, is expected to slow to an annual rate of 7% by the end of 2022, according to a new forecast from Redfin. Home sales are expected to remain relatively flat throughout the year, similar to the small annual rate of change they have been posting since August due to the ongoing shortage of homes for sale.
Redfin economists expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to continue to rise steadily to 3.9% over the course of the year.
“Even though the price of homebuying has never been higher, demand is only getting stronger,” observes Taylor Marr, Redfin’s deputy chief economist. “Some of that demand may be a reflection of buyers’ urgency to get ahead of rising rates, leaving a lot of uncertainty about how strong home sales will be in 2022. Nonetheless, the ongoing supply and demand imbalance is pushing home prices up and up because there are enough eager buyers to rapidly buy up nearly every home that hits the market. By this summer, higher prices and rates may cause buyers to pull back from the market.”
For the four weeks ending January 30, pending sales fell 2%, the largest annual decline since June 2020. Sales activity continues to be stalled by a lack of supply, as 11% fewer homes were listed for sale than during the same period last year, and total active listings fell 29% to an all-time low.
Homebuyer demand remains very strong. Pending sales were 38% higher than they were two years earlier, weeks before the pandemic began, despite there being half as many homes for sale. Just over half (51%) of homes that found a buyer spent two weeks or less on the market – the highest rate on record for January. The pace at which homes are flying off the market is quickly racing toward a new all-time high speed even as homes become more expensive than ever.
The estimated monthly mortgage payment for a typical home for sale soared 23% year over year to an all-time high of $1,877, thanks to a combination of rising mortgage rates and asking prices, which also reached a new high.
The median home sale price was up 14% year over year to $354,750. The median asking price of newly listed homes increased 14% year over year to an all-time high of $369,975.
The monthly mortgage payment on the median asking price was up 23% from a year earlier to an all-time high of $1,877. This was up 26% from the same period in 2020.
Pending home sales were down 2% year over year, the largest year-over-year decline since June 2020. However, sales were up 38% from the same period in 2020, just prior to the start of the pandemic.
New listings of homes for sale were down 11% from a year earlier, the largest decline since June 2020. Compared to January 2020, new listings were down 13%. Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 29% year over year, dropping to an all-time low of 438,000. Listings were down 49% from the same period in 2020.
Forty percent of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within one week of hitting the market, up from 34% during the same period a year earlier and 27% in 2020. This is the highest the measure has ever been in January, and the highest level since May.
Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 29 days, down from 37 days a year earlier and 58 days in 2020. In addition, 41% of homes sold above list price, up from 33% a year earlier and 19% in 2020. On average, 2.9% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, up 0.3 percentage points from the same time in 2021, but down 0.5 percentage points from 2020. The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, was 100.2%. In other words, the average home sold for 0.2% above its asking price.
Mortgage purchase applications increased 4% week over week (seasonally adjusted) during the week ending January 28. For the week ending February 3, 30-year mortgage rates were flat at 3.55%, the highest level since March 2020.
Touring activity through January 30 was 5 percentage points behind 2021 and 5 points behind 2020 relative to the first week of January, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
The Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index fell 2% during the week ending January 30 and was up 2% from a year earlier.
Read the full report here.