Canada's new home market is expected to continue to moderate in the last quarter of this year and into 2013, while activity in the existing home market is expected to hold steady, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) fourth quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition.
‘A weaker outlook for global economic conditions and the waning of the effect of pre-sales from late 2010 and early 2011, which contributed to support multi-family starts this year, will bring moderation in housing starts next year,’ says Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist for CMHC. ‘Nevertheless, employment growth and net migration will help support housing starts activity going forward.’
On an annual basis, CMHC predicts that housing starts will be in the range of 210,800 to 216,600 units this year, with a point forecast of 213,700 units. In 2013, housing starts will be in the range of 177,300 to 209,900 units, with a point forecast of 193,600 units.
Existing home sales will be in the range of 449,200 to 465,600 units this year, with a point forecast of 457,400 units. In 2013, multiple listing service (MLS) sales are expected to move up in the range of 433,300 to 489,700 units, with a point forecast of 461,500 units. The average MLS price is forecast between C$363,200 and C$367,000 this year and between C$363,100 and C$377,900 in 2013.
CMHC's point forecast for the average MLS price calls for a 0.2% gain to C$365,100 for this year and a 1.5% gain to C$370,500 next year.