CMBS Delinquencies Could Rise To 9% By Midyear

The delinquent unpaid principal balance (UPB) for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) climbed to $51.05 billion in March – a $3.23 billion increase over the prior month's total of $47.82 billion, according to Realpoint.

The total UPB for CMBS pools reviewed by the credit-rating agency for the March remittance was $798.22 billion, resulting in a delinquency rate of nearly 6.4% for the month (up from 6% reported in February). In March 2009, the delinquency rate was 1.66%, Realpoint says.

The agency further notes a potential for large-loan delinquencies in the coming months. The $4.1 billion Extended Stay Hotel loan from the WBC07ESH transaction remained in the 90+ day delinquent bucket in March. The $3 billion Peter Cooper Village/Stuyvesant Town loan – spread through five CMBS deals – remained current last month, as the specialty servicer is reportedly advancing funds to covers shortfall, but is under close monitoring. Also in March, Beacon Capital Partners LLC defaulted on the $480 million Columbia Center loan, which includes a $380 million A-note securitized in MSC07H12.

"[W]ith the combined potential for large-loan delinquency in the coming months and the recently experienced average growth month-over-month, Realpoint now projects the delinquent unpaid CMBS balance to continue along its current trend and grow to between $60 [billion] and $70 billion by mid-2010," the agency reports. "Based upon an updated trend analysis, we now project the delinquency percentage to grow to between eight percent and nine percent through mid-2010, potentially approaching and surpassing 11 percent to 12 percent under more heavily stressed scenarios through year-end 2010."

SOURCE: Realpoint


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