The delinquent unpaid balance for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) grew by $1.87 billion in February to $47.82 billion, according to the monthly CMBS delinquency report from rating agency Realpoint. The total delinquent UPB is up nearly 300% from one year ago, the firm says.
Though the 30-day bucket saw a slight decrease in February – dropping to $6.79 billion in UPB from $7.66 billion in January, the aggregate delinquency increased. The 90+ day, foreclosure and real estate owned categories grew in aggregate for the 26th straight month.
The total unpaid balance for CMBS pools reviewed by Realpoint for the February remittance was $797.06 billion, translating to a resultant delinquency ratio for the month of 6% – up from the 5.76% reported in January.
Taking into consideration the $4.1 billion delinquency of the Extended Stay Hotel loan and the expected delinquency of the $3 billion Peter Cooper Village/Stuyvesant Town loan, Realpoint projects the delinquent CMBS UPB to grow to between $60 billion and $70 billion by mid-year. Under heavily stressed scenarios, the delinquency percentage could surpass 11% by year-end, Realpoint says.