The mortgage delinquency rate for Ginnie Mae loans reached 9.2% as of September 30, according to the GNMA Credit Report from JMN Investment Management, a financial industry portfolio management and consulting firm.
For the past two years, GNMA delinquencies “have been running higher than the ‘average’ historical year, yet far below the Great Recession and COVID periods,” writes Nick Krsnich, managing member, in the report.
“The COVID datum which shows the highest bad loan statistics in recent times,” Krsnich says. “30-60-day GNMA delinquencies are keeping pace with the growth in overall delinquencies; there is a larger pipeline of loans that may advance to later stage ‘buckets.’”
The report finds that lower FICO “buckets” over the past two years are approaching COVID era delinquency levels (26.7% and 26.4% versus 32.4%).
The highly populated 661-720 FICO bucket is 7% higher in 2025 (8.7% delinquency rate) than 2024 (8.1% delinquency rate).
“This may be a sign that ‘middle’ level credit borrowers are starting to feel the pain of both higher borrowing and a higher cost of living,” Krsnich writes. “If that means ‘effective’ FICO scores are not as high as they were at origination or total indebtedness is taking a toll, no matter, this is the category that bears scrutiny.”
Krsnich adds that “2020 is a good example of how these middle and higher credit borrowers can struggle.”
“Considerable monetary stimulus kept many of 2020’s borrowers from going to a loss status, which may not be the case today,” he says. “The Loan Age bucket at 37-48 months is growing, consistent with a couple of sub-par performance years.”
To access the full report, click here.
Photo: Agê Barros
