According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report, commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquencies increased in the first quarter of 2023.
“Ongoing stress caused by higher interest rates, uncertainty around property values and questions about fundamentals in some property markets are beginning to show up in commercial mortgage delinquency rates,” says Jamie Woodwell, head of commercial real estate research, MBA. “Delinquency rates increased for every major capital source during the first quarter, foreshadowing additional strains that are likely to work their way through the system.”
MBA’s quarterly analysis looks at commercial/multifamily delinquency rates for five of the largest investor-groups: commercial banks and thrifts, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), life insurance companies and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Together these groups hold more than 80% of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding.
The analysis incorporates the measures used by each individual investor group to track the performance of their loans. Because each investor group tracks delinquencies in its own way, delinquency rates are not comparable from one group to another. As an example, Fannie Mae reports loans receiving payment forbearance as delinquent while Freddie Mac excludes those loans if the borrower is in compliance with the forbearance agreement.
Based on the unpaid principal balance (UPB) of loans, delinquency rates for each group at the end of the first quarter of 2023:
- Banks and thrifts (90 or more days delinquent or in non-accrual): 0.58%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2022;
- Life company portfolios (60 or more days delinquent): 0.21%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2022;
- Fannie Mae (60 or more days delinquent): 0.35%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2022;
- Freddie Mac (60 or more days delinquent): 0.13%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2022; and
- CMBS (30 or more days delinquent or in REO): 3.00%, an increase of 0.10 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2022.
Construction and development loans are generally not included in the numbers presented in this report but are included in many regulatory definitions of commercial real estate despite the fact they are often backed by single-family residential development projects rather than by office buildings, apartment buildings, shopping centers or other income-producing properties. The FDIC delinquency rates for bank- and thrift-held mortgages reported here do include loans backed by owner-occupied commercial properties.
