Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquencies remained low in the third quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report.
Based on the unpaid principal balance (UPB) of loans, delinquency rates at the end of the third quarter of 2022 for banks and thrifts (90 or more days delinquent or in non-accrual) were 0.44%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the second quarter of 2022. For life company portfolios (60 or more days delinquent), it was 0.09%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the second quarter of 2022. Fannie Mae (60 or more days delinquent) was 0.26%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from the second quarter of 2022, while Freddie Mac (60 or more days delinquent) was 0.13%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points from the second quarter of 2022. Lastly, CMBS (30 or more days delinquent or in REO) was 2.77%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points from the second quarter of 2022.
“The delinquency rate for mortgages backed by commercial and multifamily properties remained low at the end of the third quarter,” says Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. “For example, the share of bank-held CRE loan balances that were delinquent has only been lower once – just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic – in the series’ 30-year history.”
“The conditions that pushed delinquency rates to these near-record lows have been shifting, and we expect to see some stress work its way back into some loans,” adds Woodwell. “Very slight increases during the third quarter in the delinquency rates of life company and Freddie Mac loans may signal the beginning of these trends.”
MBA’s quarterly analysis looks at commercial/multifamily delinquency rates for five of the largest investor-groups: commercial banks and thrifts, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), life insurance companies, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Together, these groups hold more than 80% of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding. MBA’s analysis incorporates the measures used by each individual investor group to track the performance of their loans. Because each investor group tracks delinquencies in its own way, delinquency rates are not comparable from one group to another. As an example, Fannie Mae reports loans receiving payment forbearance as delinquent, while Freddie Mac excludes those loans if the borrower is in compliance with the forbearance agreement.
Construction and development loans are generally not included in the numbers presented in this report but are included in many regulatory definitions of commercial real estate despite the fact they are often backed by single-family residential development projects rather than by office buildings, apartment buildings, shopping centers, or other income-producing properties. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) delinquency rates for bank and thrift held mortgages reported here do include loans backed by owner-occupied commercial properties.
Read the report here.
Image: “Denver Stapleton Small House Condos” by Brett VA is licensed under CC BY 2.0.