S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) has released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, a measure of U.S. home prices. Data released for September 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States.
“As has been the case for the past several months, our September 2022 report reflects short-term declines and medium-term deceleration in housing prices across the U.S.,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index fell -1 percent in September, and now stands 10.6 percent above its year-ago level. We see comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, which declined -1.4 percent and -1.5 percent, respectively, bringing their year-over-year gains down to 9.7 percent and 10.4 percent. For all three composites, year-over-year gains, while still well above their historical medians, peaked roughly six months ago and have decelerated since then.”
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 10.6% annual gain in September, down from 12.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 9.7%, down from 12.1% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 10.4% year-over-year gain, down from 13.1% in the previous month.
“Despite considerable regional differences, all 20 cities in our September report reflect these trends of short-term decline and medium-term deceleration,” continues Lazzara. “Prices declined in every city in September, with a median change of -1.2 percent. Year-over-year price gains in all 20 cities were lower in September than they had been in August.”
Miami, Tampa and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in September. Miami led the way with a 24.6% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 23.8% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 17.8% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending September 2022 versus the year ending August 2022.
“The three best-performing cities in August repeated their performance in September,” adds Lazzara. “On a year-over-year basis, Miami (+24.6 percent) edged Tampa (+23.8 percent) for the top spot, with Charlotte (+17.8 percent) beating Atlanta (+17.1 percent) for third place. The Southeast (+20.8 percent) and South (+19.9 percent) were the strongest regions by far, with gains more than double those of the Northeast, Midwest and West; the two worst-performing cities were San Francisco (+2.3 percent) and Seattle (+6.2 percent).
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -1% month-over-month decrease in September, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -1.4% and -1.5%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.8%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.2%. In September, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments.
“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be more expensive and housing becomes less affordable,” concludes Lazzara. “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”
